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A consulting economist compares Brazilian and US exports of soybeans, corn and meat to China. In 2022 Brazil and the US supplied over 90% of China's soybean imports and about 74% of its corn imports.
The concentration of Chinese import demand in two suppliers means trade disruptions in either country quickly affect global soybean and corn prices.
iowafarmbureau.comDavid Miller, Consulting Chief Economist, Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS).Jul 26, 2023After 1,802 past trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,982 past trade events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 977 past trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
