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A study commissioned by the American Soybean Association and National Corn Growers Association projects large export losses under a renewed US-China trade war. In a 60% retaliatory tariff scenario, soybean exports to China could fall by over 25 MMT and corn exports by nearly 90%.
US soybean prices could drop by nearly $1 per bushel.
Projected loss of China demand would reduce US soybean and corn prices and lower farm revenue. The figures are scenario estimates rather than realized policy, so they signal risk rather than an immediate price shock.
agweb.comJan 3, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
