US agriculture faces the risk of permanently losing export markets such as China, Mexico and Canada after new tariffs were imposed. Mexico and Canada retaliated, and China imposed retaliatory taxes on some US goods on Feb.
4.
If buyers shift permanently to Brazil, US soybean, corn and protein export demand would decline, weighing on US prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.