
USDA's GAIN report projects China's MY2025/26 corn production at 298 million tons, with corn imports at only 8 million tons. Beijing continues to restrict grain imports through delayed TRQ allocations and tighter bonded-zone controls, while wheat imports are expected to rise as wheat becomes a cheaper feed grain.
Import restrictions and rising domestic output keep Chinese corn demand for imports low, weighing on US corn export prospects.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.