
Six cargoes of U.S. soybeans were loading or set to load at Gulf ports for China, the first such shipments since spring. Chinese purchases for 2025-26 total about 2.15 million tonnes in November, well short of the 12 million tonne target.
Resumed shipments add to U.S. export demand and firmed futures after earlier losses, but the volume is small against the commitment. Most trade observers doubt China will meet either the near-term or three-year targets, which caps the price support.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.