
Argentina is pushing to increase agricultural trade with China and export locally processed soymeal, citing a record 145 million ton agricultural harvest forecast for 2018/19. The soymeal sector generates about $9.2 billion in export revenue.
A large Argentine crop and its push into China's meal market add competition for soybean and meal exports, which is bearish for global meal prices if approved.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.