
People familiar with the matter say China has bought at least 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year, with state buyers booking cargoes into late December for loading through March. The White House had said China pledged 12 million tons, while Beijing has not confirmed the commitment.
Sustained Chinese state buying supports U.S. export demand and soybean prices into early 2026. The purchases remain short of the full pledge, so the demand support is real but incomplete.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.