StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman says China will keep buying US farm goods for political reasons, even when Brazilian beans are cheaper. He says China has bought grain sorghum and some wheat.
He expects a possible deal at a planned end-of-March Trump meeting.
Continued political buying by China supports US soybean and sorghum demand even when prices are uncompetitive, which is supportive for those markets.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.