
Analysts say China may be less likely to follow through on a large purchase of US soybeans that Trump has touted, now that the Supreme Court has struck down his sweeping tariffs. Most-active soybean futures fell slightly on Friday morning after rallying 8.49% since February 4.
China has already bought about 12 million metric tons of US soybeans.
Without tariff leverage, China has less reason to take US cargoes when cheaper Brazilian beans are available, which weakens the expected demand support for US soybean prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.