Chinese state buyers purchased 8-10 Panamax cargoes of US soybeans for shipment from December, the first such deals since the September Trump-Xi summit. Premiums were $3.10-3.20 per bushel over January CBOT soybeans, and Sinograin also sold 40.5% of 518,000 tons of imported soybeans at auction.
State buying absorbs harvest-season US supply and supports US soybean basis and premiums, though private crushers remain sidelined by the tariff gap, limiting the upside.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.