
Railway disruptions in Ukraine have caused rail rates to more than double in November 2021, slowing crop deliveries from farms to ports. Inerco expects exports of about 6.5 million tonnes in November, below the September record, with disruptions persisting until January.
Slower delivery to ports reduces export availability and supports Ukrainian cash and FOB prices for wheat and corn. This strengthens the Black Sea price premium over Russian grain.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.