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Analysts warn that rising Eastern Europe tensions could escalate into open hostilities, bringing sanctions and trade disruptions. Around 231 million tonnes of dry bulk cargo was shipped from Black Sea ports last year, 85% of it from Ukraine and Russia.
A conflict could make the Black Sea inaccessible to commercial shipping in whole or part.
Closure or disruption of Black Sea ports would raise dry bulk freight rates and reroute grain supply, tightening feed grain availability and increasing ocean freight costs.
breakwaveadvisors.comOcean AnalyticsJan 27, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Warnings in late January that Black Sea dry bulk exports (231 Mt) could be disrupted fed risk premia and tonnage-rerouting expectations in grain freight.
