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Ukraine and Russia agreed a UN-led deal to allow safe export of Ukrainian grain and fertilizer through Black Sea ports blockaded since Russia's February invasion. The deal targets a return to pre-war export volumes of about 5 million tonnes per month.
Restoring Ukrainian wheat and corn flows adds large supply to world markets that had been short, which pressures grain prices lower.
reuters.comTuvan Gumrukcu, Jonathan SpicerJul 22, 2022After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
UN-led deal targeting about 5 mt/month of Ukrainian exports implies a large supply increase, bearish for wheat.
