
On November 1, 2022, the UN said Russia's delegation had been suspended from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and three outbound vessels carrying about 84,490 tonnes moved under agreement by the other parties. Total tonnage moved from Ukrainian ports under the initiative reached 9.73 million tonnes.
Russia's suspension raised doubts about the continuity of Ukrainian grain exports, supporting wheat and corn prices. The continued movement of vessels limits how much of that risk premium can build.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.