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Ukrainian seaborne grain exports fell about 20 percent month to date in April 2023 as the Black Sea Grain Initiative's extension deadline of May 18 approached without clear guidance. Cumulative shipments under the deal reached almost 29 million mt, and Handysize and Supramax day rates were quoted at $13,000 to $16,000 per day.
Russian wheat trade was also described as disrupted by a price floor.
Lower Ukrainian export flows and higher vessel costs tighten Black Sea supply and raise freight costs, supporting wheat and corn prices. Uncertainty over the deal's extension keeps risk premiums elevated.
spglobal.comNikolaos Aidinis Antonopoulos, Vivian IroanyaApr 24, 2023After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
