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An IFPRI analysis says Russia's July 2023 withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative raises fears of reduced wheat and other grain exports to developing countries. The deal had enabled Ukraine to export 33 million tonnes of grain, mostly to developing nations.
Russia has argued the deal's benefits for Africa were overstated.
Loss of the deal's export flows and its price-stabilising effect could raise wheat import costs for sub-Saharan Africa and support global wheat prices.
ifpri.orgJoseph Glauber, Soonho Kim, Elsa Olivetti, Rob VosAug 7, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
