
Ukraine's grain exports in July 2024 more than doubled year on year to over 4.2 million metric tons, according to the UGA traders' union. Shipments continued despite Russian attacks on Odesa and Izmail.
Volumes via Odesa rose sharply and Danube flows also increased.
Stronger Ukrainian export flows add supply to world wheat and corn markets, which is bearish for prices. Continued shipping despite attacks limits the risk premium.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.