
Ukraine introduced minimum export prices on December 1, along with tighter customs controls and a limit on export licences to VAT-paying firms. UGA data shows December grain, oilseed and vegetable oil exports fell to about 4.7 Mt from 7.2 Mt a year earlier, with wheat down from 1.84 Mt to 789,000 t.
The sharp drop in Ukrainian export volumes tightens global availability of wheat and corn and supports world prices, while buyers face higher offer prices and less reliable supply.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.