
Howe Robinson forecasts Russian grain exports falling to 47 Mt in 2025 from 59 Mt in 2024, and coal exports down 6.1%. Sanctions and adverse weather are cited as pressures on Russian dry bulk shipping.
Lower Russian grain export volumes reduce global wheat supply and could support wheat prices, while weaker bulk freight demand could pressure ocean freight rates.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.