
Russia's seaborne grain exports fell to 5.1 million tonnes in September 2025, down 10.1% year-on-year, according to shipping data. Season-to-date seaborne exports are 13.1 million tonnes, down 20.9%.
Black Sea terminals handle about 90% of seaborne shipments, and the decline partly reflects a slower harvest.
Lower Russian export availability tightens global wheat and barley supply at the margin, which is mildly supportive for feed grain prices.
After 431 past bullish trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.