Agronomist Michael Cordonnier said Brazil's safrinha corn was 31% harvested and that he raised his Brazil corn estimate by 2 million tonnes to 112 million. Parts of Brazil have suffered drought and unusual pest pressure from corn leafhoppers, which transmit a stunting virus.
Some growers sprayed up to 12 insecticide applications.
The higher crop estimate is bearish, but the leafhopper virus and drought could cut yields in affected areas and partly offset that pressure. Net effect on feed corn prices is limited.
After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.