
Mato Grosso farmers are waiting for the first significant summer rains before planting soybeans, which are permitted after the September 15 soy-free period ends. Forecasts show no rain for at least 6-10 days, with first significant rainfall expected in the second half of September.
Delayed rains could push soybean planting later and raise replant risk, a mildly bullish factor for soybeans. Higher input costs may also make farmers cautious about planting early.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.