
AgRural estimates that more than half of the second corn crop in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul will be planted outside the ideal climate window. Both states were behind historical planting pace, and the consultancy said more than 50% of the corn in the second and third biggest states will be planted late.
Late-planted corn faces higher frost risk, as in 2020/21, which could cut output and exports and support corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.