
Agroconsult's Rally da Safra raised its forecast for Brazil's second corn crop to 102.4 million tonnes, up from 97.2 million in March and about 10% above the previous cycle. Yields in Mato Grosso and Goiás are at records, and Brazil's corn exports are forecast at a record 54.1 million tonnes.
Planting in Parana was the slowest on record because of the late soybean harvest.
A larger safrinha crop and record export volumes add to global corn supply during the Brazilian export season, which is bearish for corn prices. Logistics congestion could slow shipments and partly limit the price effect.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.