
World Grain says Brazil's weather this spring has been poor in many areas, and production could fall well below trend unless conditions improve soon. Forecasters link the problem to El Niño, a 22-year solar cycle and the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption, and compare it with the 2015-16 drought.
Sustained yield losses in Brazil's soybean and corn crops would tighten global feed supplies and support soybean and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.