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Untimely rains have delayed Mato Grosso's soybean harvest, which in turn delays corn planting. The corn yield window may now overlap with the onset of the dry season.
Mato Grosso farmers typically have planted only about 11% of their corn crop by this point.
Late planting pushes corn yields into a riskier dry-season window, tightening world corn stocks that are already thin and supporting prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.