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The 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged at 179.0 million tons. Harvest was 16% complete, with Mato Grosso at 39%, and concerns included poor seed quality in northern Mato Grosso and hot, dry conditions in southern Brazil.
An unchanged estimate with downside risks in the south keeps Brazilian supply expectations steady, so the price effect is limited for now.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.