
Widely varying US crop conditions are clouding forecasts for average corn and soybean yields. USDA's August survey put yields below the 20-year trend, and drought persists across much of the western and northern Corn Belt even as historic floods hit other areas.
Uncertainty over national yields and drought in the northern and western Corn Belt supports corn and soy prices ahead of the September USDA update.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.