
Analysts polled ahead of USDA's Thursday report expect the 2023 US corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, up from 173 last month and just below last year's 173.4. Soybean yield is expected at 49.6 bushels, unchanged from last month and last year.
Trade expectations for steady-to-higher US yields point to ample supply, so the report sets a bearish baseline for corn and soybeans unless it surprises.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.