
NASA-GRACE satellite analysis as of Feb. 19, 2024 shows root-zone soil moisture in most of the Midwest at 30% of normal or below, with some areas under 10% of the mean.
Despite a wet winter in Iowa, deeper soil moisture remains depleted after years of drought, according to USDA Midwest Climate Hub Director Dennis Todey.
Dry subsoil raises the risk that a spring dry spell could cut yields, which supports corn and soybean prices if planting conditions turn poor.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.