Dryness is widespread across Brazil's safrinha corn areas, with Conab reporting yield concerns in Goias and Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso's development slowing as rainfall declines. Maxar expects warm, dry weather to expand over the next week.
Brazil's weather service also forecasts below-average rain for April-June in southern Brazil due to La Nina.
Lower safrinha yields would cut Brazil's large export supply at a time when other major exporters are tight, supporting corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.