
USDA's final estimate put the 2023 US corn yield at 177.3 bushels per acre, a figure that surprised much of the grain trading market. The review traces the May and June 2023 dryness in the central US, including record-dry counties in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and asks whether the surprise was warranted.
A final yield above expectations points to larger 2023 supply than traders had priced, which weighs on corn values. The weather review explains why the crop held up despite early dryness.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.