
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey said the Midwest is expected to have lower odds of extreme heat than much of the rest of the country over the next three months. NOAA precipitation outlooks show the Midwest near average, with more drought risk out west.
Rippey said growing conditions have been favorable overall.
Favorable Midwest weather and yield prospects point to ample corn and soybean supply, which is bearish for feed grain and meal prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, CORN moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Favorable Midwest weather outlook with lower extreme-heat odds supports big US crop expectations, adding bearish supply pressure.