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Commodity Weather Group's first national corn yield forecast is 183.6 bushels per acre, slightly above trend, after a season of mostly favorable weather. The firm is holding back somewhat due to historical upward bias and some risk of drier weather in August.
A yield estimate above trend signals ample corn supply and tends to pressure futures, though August dryness risk limits the downside.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.