
USDA's November crop production report left acreage unchanged, so yield revisions drove production changes. Yields were lowered across the Southeast, while the Corn Belt was mostly stable and Nebraska and Kansas soybean yields rose modestly.
Soybean production was cut, and futures rebounded sharply.
A lower USDA soybean production estimate tightens the soybean balance sheet, which supports soybean prices. Corn yields were largely unchanged, so corn impact is limited.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.