
Argus's late-2021 review reported that sulfur prices firmed in the fourth quarter after DAP rallied in October and Chinese phosphate export restrictions remained unclear. Middle East FOB sulfur was assessed at $223-230 per tonne and Brazil CFR near $245-246 per tonne.
Phosphate producers were restocking sulfur ahead of constrained Chinese DAP and MAP supply.
Phosphate producers' sulfur purchases tie sulfur demand to DAP output, so tight Chinese phosphate supply supports sulfur and DAP prices. Buyers of phosphate-based feed inputs should expect firmer costs.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.