
Ukraine's sunflower oil exports through June 26 were just under 400,000 tonnes, on track for the weakest month since November 2023 and more than 40% below May. Idle Black Sea crushing capacity, mostly in Ukraine, is blamed, and Black Sea sunflower oil prices softened in late June.
Lower Ukrainian supply would normally lift prices, but weak palm and soy oil pulled sunflower oil lower. Buyers are shifting to Russian cargoes, leaving European importers exposed to volatility.
After 13 past neutral logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -0.9% to +0.7%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 24 past logistics events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.