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Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were flat in the US Midwest on 4 March 2025 as KC May futures fell 15 cents to $5.47/bu. The move followed new 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%, and farmers were hesitant to sell at low futures prices.
Tariff-driven export risk pushed futures lower, and reluctant farmer selling keeps local cash supply tight, so buyers face weak futures with firm basis support.
itiger.comtigerbrokersMar 5, 2025After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
