Northwest European diesel refining margins edged up in a quiet market after US distillate stocks rose 10.6 million barrels, more than five times the expected 1.9 million barrel gain. IIR Energy estimated 697,000 barrels per day of US refining capacity offline in the week ending January 11.
A large US distillate build is bearish for diesel prices, though the offline refining capacity offers some support. Stock levels and refinery outages together shape diesel crack spreads that feed into fuel costs.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.