
US refiners fell sharply after reports that the Trump administration wants to slow the 2020 implementation of IMO rules cutting sulfur in ship fuel by more than 80%. The industry has invested billions preparing for the rules, which would raise shipping costs for goods including soybeans.
Delaying IMO 2020 would reduce expected demand for low-sulfur diesel and lower ocean freight cost pressure, which weighs on refining margins and could ease shipping costs for grain exports.
After 21 past bearish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.5% to +4.7%), and -1.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.