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A Reuters poll of 11 traders, planters and analysts expects Malaysian end-July palm oil stocks to rise 10.8% to 2.25 million tons, the highest in almost two years. Output is forecast up 8% and exports up 3.2%.
Rising inventories signal ample palm supply during peak production, which is bearish for prices. Stocks above 2 million tons are seen as manageable, which limits the downside.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.