The yuan rose nearly 1% against the dollar on the first trading day of 2021, its biggest daily gain in about three months, and broke a key technical level. The onshore yuan gained 6.7% in 2020, its first annual rise in three years, supported by a weaker dollar, yield gaps and China's coronavirus containment.
A firmer yuan on a weaker dollar supports Chinese import purchasing power for commodities priced in dollars. The move is a currency story with limited direct effect on feed prices.
After 362 past bearish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports the yuan's nearly 1% gain on the first trading day of 2021, the very move in question, driven by a weaker dollar, yield gaps and China's COVID containment.