
Investors have built large bullish dollar positions, with speculative net longs around $30 billion, the largest since the start of Trump's second presidency. Several major currencies, including the won, have weakened against the dollar.
Heavy speculative dollar buying can extend the rally and keep pressure on commodities priced in dollars, while weaker currencies raise import costs for feed-buying countries.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.