April milk production rose 1% and US dairy cow numbers increased by 9,000 from the prior month. Cold storage was up 1% month on month but still below last year.
Contacts report solid cheese and butter demand, with international butter buyers strong.
Output growth and rising cold storage add supply, which is bearish for prices. Expected food assistance and school lunch funding cuts could weaken domestic demand and add pressure.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.