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The ECB hiked rates without matching moves from the BoE, SNB, Norges Bank or Riksbank, which all held. Analysts at BNY, Rabobank and Societe Generale expect the euro to underperform, with Rabobank forecasting EUR/USD at 1.1600 in three months.
Analysts expect the euro to remain weak against the dollar, which tends to keep dollar-priced commodity prices under pressure. Rate divergence across Europe also shapes currency flows affecting import costs.
fxstreet.comFXStreet Insights TeamJun 18, 2026After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The ECB hiking alone without peer central banks and analyst expectations of euro underperformance weighed on sentiment on 06-18.
