
European Euronext September milling wheat fell 1.1% to 181.50 euros a tonne, a near three-month low, on ample global supply and a stronger euro. USDA raised world ending stocks to a record 316.1 million tonnes, and Russian consultancies raised their wheat harvest forecasts.
Rain in Germany eased dryness concerns, although the MARS service cut its EU soft wheat yield estimate.
Record world stocks and higher Russian crop forecasts add export competition and weigh on global wheat prices, which lowers feed wheat costs. The EU yield cut limits the downside somewhat.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.