November new-crop UK feed wheat futures hit a five-month closing high of £123.50 a tonne after weather issues. French crops were downgraded by 2 to 5 per cent in one week over fusarium fears.
Russia is forecast to produce 61.1 million tonnes of wheat and to be an aggressive exporter.
Crop downgrades in France support European feed wheat prices, but a large Russian crop and export push limit the rally. The price carry from old to new crop encourages farmers to store grain.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.