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May wheat futures rose as much as 4.4% to $4.47 1/2 a bushel in Chicago, the biggest intraday advance since August, rebounding from a record low for the contract. USDA data showed the Texas winter wheat good/excellent rating fell to 28% from 36%.
Deteriorating Texas HRW conditions and short covering lifted wheat prices from oversold levels. Reports that Ukraine's crop is ahead of expectations limit the upside by signaling no global shortage.
fullertreacymoney.comCommentary by Eoin TreacyMar 12, 2019After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rebound from record-low wheat futures with the biggest gain since August on falling Texas winter wheat ratings; the report is dated March 12, so it likely describes the same short-covering rally, but the date gap makes the link imperfect.
