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Todd Hubbs of the University of Illinois warns that a large Brazilian soybean crop, expected record U.S. soybean acreage, and weak exports could push soybean prices lower. He notes USDA has cut soybean exports four months in a row as China sources more beans from Brazil.
The Prospective Planting report due March 29 is seen as a key test, with an Allendale survey projecting more than 92 million U.S. soybean acres.
Heavier Brazilian supply and lost Chinese demand for U.S. beans point to bearish pressure on soybeans and the meal used in feed. A larger U.S. acreage figure would add further downside.
brownfieldagnews.comMark DorenkampMar 20, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
