US natural gas futures rose about 3% to $3.065 per MMBtu on Monday after bullish weather forecasts pointed to higher heating demand over the next two weeks. Traders also awaited storage data expected to show a build of 11 to 21 bcf, with total stocks 4.5% below year-ago levels.
Colder forecasts raise expected winter demand for gas, supporting prices, while storage builds below the five-year average keep the market tight. Feed-relevant effects are indirect through natural gas costs for ethanol, DDGS and fertilizer inputs.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.